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Any other tin foil hat wearers?


Danfire

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Does anyone else smell a rat? I've never been one for conspiracy theories but this entire episode has got me puzzled.

What I struggle to understand is why, when the total mortality rate (in % terms) was higher in all but 12 years of the previous 50 did we not respond in the same way? Why was there no lockdown and mask wearing before? The flu pandemic of 2000 caused a higher annual mortality than we suffered in 2020 but all I can remember from back then was the worry about the millennium bug and the dome.

A common response is "if those measures weren't taken, it would've been like the black death". Places that didn't respond like us seem to all follow the same infection curves so I don't entirely buy that.

I've got my own ideas what's going on and time will tell if I'm right. Standing by for the usual ridicule but I'd really be interested in links to data that can show me I'm wrong.

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Must admit I can not work out why the UK infection rate and deaths are so high when compared to other countries. 

The difference with the flu is that other than jabs for over 65 (or what ever) the mortality rate is relatively low. So hospitals cope with the 'normal' number of flu victims that we get.

The problem with Covid is the number of people catching it is very high, while most only get mild symptoms and some no symptoms at all, a small percentage have to be hospitalised. So even a small %  of a big number of infections is an issue. It's all down to NHS capacity - OK so you could say lack of investment but then we would have paid for capacity that was rarely needed. 

Bottom line is if we didn't have such high infection rate we would be fine.

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I was listening to a podcast where the guest has a book in which he proposes America should have 1 billion Americans to compete economically with China. He’s worked out that level of population, it would still have half the population density that the U.K. has right now. So presumably population density could be one? 
 

I agree with ched as the nhs is public ally funded it would be a gigantic waste of money to have too much spare capacity year on year. 
 

The government mishandled the start of the pandemic. I said weeks before the Cheltenham festival to anyone who’d hear it that it shouldn’t have went ahead, and I’m a moron. That couldn’t have helped, nor sending elderly patients with potential covid cases back to care homes.

 

It also appears now that if the government had closed the borders to all non essential travel and carried on with the first lockdown for longer, it could have almost eliminated it then proceeded with something closer to Australia and New Zealand. 

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I didn't and haven't blamed the government for their handing of the pandemic....the public wanted pubs & restaurants opened, Xmas, day trips to the beach,  visits to care homes, fly to Europe and beyond. Every day I still see people NOT wearing masks, Social distancing etc etc.

 

We are a country of to many people NOT complying with rules/laws....lots of selfish people in this country I think.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Danfire said:

Does anyone else smell a rat? I've never been one for conspiracy theories but this entire episode has got me puzzled.

What I struggle to understand is why, when the total mortality rate (in % terms) was higher in all but 12 years of the previous 50 did we not respond in the same way? Why was there no lockdown and mask wearing before? The flu pandemic of 2000 caused a higher annual mortality than we suffered in 2020 but all I can remember from back then was the worry about the millennium bug and the dome.

A common response is "if those measures weren't taken, it would've been like the black death". Places that didn't respond like us seem to all follow the same infection curves so I don't entirely buy that.

I've got my own ideas what's going on and time will tell if I'm right. Standing by for the usual ridicule but I'd really be interested in links to data that can show me I'm wrong.

It's dangerous to start comparing 2020 with 20 years ago without taking into account medical advancements. It isn't good if your death rates suddenly revert back to rates you were seeing 20 years ago.

In terms of other places I assume you're partly referring to Sweden? Difficult to compare Sweden with the UK as the two are very different but if you compare Sweden to countries they're most similar to like Norway or Finland you see that the Swedish approach has not been successful in terms of limiting deaths. 

We've also had a far more transmissible strain of the virus that has become dominant in the UK. Much of the south was in tier 1 and 2 prior to Christmas and that variant swept through like nothing was a matter. We simply had to increase restrictions in that case because the NHS down there was under severe pressure. 

I'm of the opinion that lockdown is **** in many ways but lesser restrictions that allow the virus to spread aren't going to help anything. You cannot have a public health crisis and a healthy economy running simultaneously. 

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14 minutes ago, SSWC said:

It's dangerous to start comparing 2020 with 20 years ago without taking into account medical advancements. It isn't good if your death rates suddenly revert back to rates you were seeing 20 years ago.

In terms of other places I assume you're partly referring to Sweden? Difficult to compare Sweden with the UK as the two are very different but if you compare Sweden to countries they're most similar to like Norway or Finland you see that the Swedish approach has not been successful in terms of limiting deaths. 

We've also had a far more transmissible strain of the virus that has become dominant in the UK. Much of the south was in tier 1 and 2 prior to Christmas and that variant swept through like nothing was a matter. We simply had to increase restrictions in that case because the NHS down there was under severe pressure. 

I'm of the opinion that lockdown is **** in many ways but lesser restrictions that allow the virus to spread aren't going to help anything. You cannot have a public health crisis and a healthy economy running simultaneously. 

Sweden, Japan, many US states but I take the comparison with their neighbours.

We are always going to fare badly with any novel virus given our population density and obesity crisis.

Have there been so many medical advances since 2020? The average age of death has increased a few years since 2000 so it's possible, also likely that the huge reduction in cigarette use following the ban has played a big part in that.

I can't help thinking that the economic damage of the measures may well cause far more death than the virus. I don't know where the quote came from but, "no country has ever made its citizens healthier by making them poorer" probably has a grain of truth to it.

Edited by Danfire
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5 minutes ago, Danfire said:

Sweden, Japan, many US states but I take the comparison with their neighbours.

We are always going to fare badly with any novel virus given our population density and obesity crisis.

Have there been so many medical advances since 2020? The average age of death has increased a few years since 2000 so it's possible, also likely that the huge reduction in cigarette use following the ban has played a big part in that.

I can't help thinking that the economic damage of the measures may well cause far more death than the virus. I don't know where the quote came from but, "no country has ever made its citizens healthier by making them poorer" probably has a grain of truth to it.

Yeah I agree that we probably never stood much of a chance at the start in the UK due the frequency of people flying into here, pop density, obesity, aging population etc. Those are also the reasons I think a Swedish approach would have resulted in even more death and misery. They don't have the demographics, health issues or incoming air traffic that we do. 

 

In terms of the restrictions causing more death than the virus I think that's highly unlikely if not entirely impossible. Whilst I take your point that lockdown isn't good for the economy, the alternative which is a lesser controlled pandemic is even worse in my view. At least with lockdown there's some form of control over the shutdown and industries can be offered financial support. The alternative would be a chaotic shutting down of everything because the reality is if people's local hospitals are overwhelmed they'll stop going out. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Patrick Flaherty said:

I didn't and haven't blamed the government for their handing of the pandemic....the public wanted pubs & restaurants opened, Xmas, day trips to the beach,  visits to care homes, fly to Europe and beyond. Every day I still see people NOT wearing masks, Social distancing etc etc.

 

We are a country of to many people NOT complying with rules/laws....lots of selfish people in this country I think.

 

 

You will never ever get people to 100% comply.If we base the science on 100% compliance from the public then we are done for because it will never happen.

We can't get probably even 60% of the public to pay the right income tax if we did we could probably fund better health care.

Even if it's in the public health  interest they just don't care.How many have drink or drug problems?Those people aren't interested in a mask or social distancing.There are loads of examples.

The government have made a mess.I'm not sure any one else could or would have done better.

We have only just started restricting travel 11 months after this started.In December you couldn't see your family but if you had a few quid you can go to Dubai and mix with people from all over the world then travel back.

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I don't know how much "compliance" pays a part in this episode. The main sources of infection seem to be hospitals followed by nursing homes.

I can remember thinking right at the start, "this is bad, they're going to have to hermetically seal all the care homes,  staff are going to have to isolate in there with them, all food will have to be delivered etc". Nothing of the sort happened, the deaths in care homes should be a national scandal. If the vulnerable could've been protected as many professionals suggested the outcome could've been far better. Instead, they've put everyone under measures and not done anything to address the issue of the vulnerable including the obese. If the government were honest from the start many of the younger lives could've been saved.

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Edited by Danfire
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The gov's reaction is interesting. To me they seem very very slow to make any decision. It always seems they are way too late to do anything.

It reminds me of about 20 years ago, the Army were looking at becoming more agile and started taking about Rapid Reaction forces. They understood that situations happened much faster than the did in the previous decades. It looks like the gov are still on the old slow reaction methodologies. I worked for MoD so was very remote to Army thinking so it probably started much earlier. 

To be fair to them, at the beginning this whole worldwide pandemic was new to most countries so they were all just guessing what to do and hoping it would blow over. Then they had excuses now they have no excuse to react slowly. They are getting better as we can see with new fast reaction testing being setup in certain postcode areas. Not sure the 10 day hotel quarantine has been implemented anywhere near fast enough but hopefully it will help as long as no one is exempt!

The gov have to balance public health with the economy and many other things. They are never going to get it right, just hope they learn and don't make same mistakes twice. 

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5 hours ago, ksp said:

I was listening to a podcast where the guest has a book in which he proposes America should have 1 billion Americans to compete economically with China. He’s worked out that level of population, it would still have half the population density that the U.K. has right now. So presumably population density could be one? 
 

I agree with ched as the nhs is public ally funded it would be a gigantic waste of money to have too much spare capacity year on year. 
 

The government mishandled the start of the pandemic. I said weeks before the Cheltenham festival to anyone who’d hear it that it shouldn’t have went ahead, and I’m a moron. That couldn’t have helped, nor sending elderly patients with potential covid cases back to care homes.

 

It also appears now that if the government had closed the borders to all non essential travel and carried on with the first lockdown for longer, it could have almost eliminated it then proceeded with something closer to Australia and New Zealand. 

The infection rate slowed down significantly during our summer months and took off again when the colder weather set in. It followed the same pattern as the annual flu virus spread has for many years.

Australia and New Zealand are in their summer now. So we need to wait and see what happens in May, June and July when temperatures are at their lowest.

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10 minutes ago, spruce said:

The infection rate slowed down significantly during our summer months and took off again when the colder weather set in. It followed the same pattern as the annual flu virus spread has for many years.

Australia and New Zealand are in their summer now. So we need to wait and see what happens in May, June and July when temperatures are at their lowest.

The first wave peaked in April here which is hardly winter. Brazil and South Africa have seen massive spread during their summer. Seasonality plays a part but not critical imo. 

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34 minutes ago, SSWC said:

The first wave peaked in April here which is hardly winter. Brazil and South Africa have seen massive spread during their summer. Seasonality plays a part but not critical imo. 

I excluded South Africa from my comments because no one knows exactly what is going on there. Having lived in 3 now independent African countries one never knows what the agenda is. A while back it was reported that South Africa had halted the spread of the virus by enforcing a very strict lockdown. Now suddenly its out of control but there is very little testing.

These countries will use any excuse to beg for aid, so this is why you can never be sure what the hidden agenda is.

I can't comment about Brazil or any of those other South American countries. We heard lots from Brazil but not much from other countries.

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1 hour ago, spruce said:

The infection rate slowed down significantly during our summer months and took off again when the colder weather set in. It followed the same pattern as the annual flu virus spread has for many years.

Australia and New Zealand are in their summer now. So we need to wait and see what happens in May, June and July when temperatures are at their lowest.

I think that’s more a consequence of the lockdown that preceded it, than the summer. I agree though, that being outside in the summer clearly helps reduce the spread of it and winter exacerbate it. 
 

If we can, as a collective effort across the globe, keep it down to halt the mutations we can hopefully get on top of it sooner. 
 

I’m sure we can all agree we will be glad to see the end of it and complain about brexit or the EU again 😁
 

 

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6 minutes ago, ksp said:

I think that’s more a consequence of the lockdown that preceded it, than the summer. I agree though, that being outside in the summer clearly helps reduce the spread of it and winter exacerbate it. 
 

If we can, as a collective effort across the globe, keep it down to halt the mutations we can hopefully get on top of it sooner. 
 

I’m sure we can all agree we will be glad to see the end of it and complain about brexit or the EU again 😁
 

 

It snowed in London yesterday so got knocked off the front page because of this national catastrophe 

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One of the biggest issues I have is how flu and pneumonia figures were merged with Covid19 deaths?... Why would the government do this? That along with all the other deaths that were not Covid but have been thrown into the Covid death count. Why bump up Covid figures?.. Why prolong the lockdowns?

Lock downs obviously don't work if they did we wouldn't need to keep on having them and how could masks work when they are not fit for purpose.

Another issue I have is - Main Stream Media - BBC/SKY News/ITV... I don't believe the information they are pumping out - with their agenda of instilling fear on us..

A good alternative source of news - https://www.ukcolumn.org/ukcolumn-news/uk-column-news-8th-february-2021

(These guys source the information they discuss and put up links to where the info came from)

Australia - I am dual citizen UK & Australian, I have family/friends/old work mates there who I am in regular contact with. Western Australia is now in full lockdown. I expect in March when winter starts there flu will be used to carry on lockdowns. The Australian states have been in and out of lockdowns on a regular basis. Melbourne had a very severe lockdown mask wearing was enforced outside of homes in the streets..

I was never a fan of this woman but she certainly seems to be questioning what is going on unlike virtually everyone else in the media field...

Another issue I have is how Facebook/Twitter are now pulling down anything anti government agenda regarding Covid. This really kicked of when Twitter banned Trump before Biden took power. Freedom of speech seems to be going.

 

 

 

 

Edited by THL4KEL
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Of course lockdowns work.....for slowing the spread and reducing infection rates....anybody who says different is a misguided fool.....the stats prove it in every country that's had a lockdown!

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9 minutes ago, THL4KEL said:

One of the biggest issues I have is how flu and pneumonia figures were merged with Covid19 deaths?... Why would the government do this? That along with all the other deaths that were not Covid but have been thrown into the Covid death count. Why bump up Covid figures?.. Why prolong the lockdowns?

Lock downs obviously don't work if they did we wouldn't need to keep on having them and how could masks work when they are not fit for purpose.

Another issue I have is - Main Stream Media - BBC/SKY News/ITV... I don't believe the information they are pumping out - with their agenda of instilling fear on us..

A good alternative source of news - https://www.ukcolumn.org/ukcolumn-news/uk-column-news-8th-february-2021

(These guys source the information they discuss and put up links to where the info came from)

Australia - I am dual citizen UK & Australian, I have family/friends/old work mates there who I am in regular contact with. Western Australia is now in full lockdown. I expect in March when winter starts there flu will be used to carry on lockdowns. The Australian states have been in and out of lockdowns on a regular basis. Melbourne had a very severe lockdown mask wearing was enforced outside of homes in the streets..

I was never a fan of this woman but she certainly seems to be questioning what is going on unlike virtually everyone else in the media field...

Another issue I have is how Facebook/Twitter are now pulling down anything anti government agenda regarding Covid. This really kicked of when Twitter banned Trump before Biden took power. Freedom of speech seems to be going.

I'm interested to why you think countries are locking down.

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19 minutes ago, dazmond said:

Of course lockdowns work.....for slowing the spread and reducing infection rates....anybody who says different is a misguided fool.....the stats prove it in every country that's had a lockdown!

Yeah according to Boris - SKY/ITV/BBC News they work... 

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