Our future?

[David K]

Seems like we,re all avoiding talking about the elephant in the room.
We look into a cold dark expensive winter,due to a destroyed economy, 2 yrs of lockdowns, moneyprinting with inflation , and now a war with shortages of everything. My question is, how much do you /we expect this industry to be decimated? Of course there will always be people that need their windows cleaned, but it Seem to me the middleclass is being destroyed by too high living-expenses. Im based in DK and stuff are expensive here as well. Your thoughts please?

 

[Pjj]

Seems like we,re all avoiding talking about the elephant in the room.
We look into a cold dark expensive winter,due to a destroyed economy, 2 yrs of lockdowns, moneyprinting with inflation , and now a war with shortages of everything. My question is, how much do you /we expect this industry to be decimated? Of course there will always be people that need their windows cleaned, but it Seem to me the middleclass is being destroyed by too high living-expenses. Im based in DK and stuff are expensive here as well. Your thoughts please?

This is a situation that none of us know how it will turn out , so far we have lost less than a handful of jobs but that could dramatically increase, just have to see how it goes ,we have just finished a price rise across the whole of our customer base and only lost one job due to that which was a blessing as it was a pain job , most customers have been expecting a rise and many have put their own prices up . Our enquiries have slowed right down from 40 + per week to around 3-5 but we don’t need anymore work so not bothered about that , but the interesting thing about the new enquiries they are from wealthy owners with bigger houses and they accept the price . Again wether this will last who knows . We still have a big backlog of add on jobs , soft washing , gutter vaccing , plastic cleans , pressure washing etc that will not be finished until end of November, none that are booked in so far have cancelled , but again time will tell , at this stage ime not worried but obviously it could be an uncertain future later in the year and next year .

 

[Part Timer]

Seems like we,re all avoiding talking about the elephant in the room.
We look into a cold dark expensive winter,due to a destroyed economy, 2 yrs of lockdowns, moneyprinting with inflation , and now a war with shortages of everything. My question is, how much do you /we expect this industry to be decimated? Of course there will always be people that need their windows cleaned, but it Seem to me the middleclass is being destroyed by too high living-expenses. Im based in DK and stuff are expensive here as well. Your thoughts please?

In my opinion I think a lot of people are being rather naive on this. Peoples energy bills are going to be circa £70 a week, from around £40, and forecast to go higher. Food and interest rates will continue to keep going up. You can't have inflation at 15% and interest rates at 3%.

Everyone, as far as I know, picked up a lot of residential work during lockdown. If we keep half of these new jobs I will be happy. I have, roughly 50/50 split in the NE, between residential and commercial and think the residential will be down by at least 25% by early to mid next year.

Quantatitive Easing was necessary but the taps were kept on to long and then Ukraine came along to compound the inevitable inflation. I have lived and worked through all sorts of "crashes" but think this will be the worst of the lot. As long as you haven't got massive debts then you should be alright but anyone with a large mortgage, good luck

 

[High-tower]

I think it’s going to be a challenging time for a lot of people.
Just talking from a window cleaning perspective - as a business it typically fairs well through ups and downs.
It should be a low overhead business. It’s a small expense for home owners too, compared to having the builders in etc. however there is a LOT more competition these days.
I’m expecting my round to look very different in the coming months/years. I think cleaning frequencies will be longer one offs to be more common and a lot of competition on price.
I think personally I will hunker down and my savings might take a hit this winter and hopefully things will be clearer by march/april

 

[Davejh]

It's a scary time but the economy has always had ups and downs. If there was a jobs crisis I'd be more concerned but there are still plenty of jobs and still plenty of people who own homes. They might cut back on things including windows and "luxuries" but the economy will bounce back, the jobs market is still strong, just have to find a way to survive in the meantime

 

[ched999uk]

I think this situation is very different to previous recessions. In previous recessions it was within the governments control i.e. housing market, banking crisis etc. This time it's a world issue that is causing inflation so the UK gov can't do anything about global prices.
OK so they could subsidise energy prices but that needs to be domestic and commercial as just domestic won't help inflation much.
Raising interest rates won't really work these days as this inflation isn't caused by consumers buying more stuff it's a world issue.

If the gov don't do enough to reduce energy prices then people will die!! There will be national strikes as workers will need pay rises to try and stay afloat. Then we will get rioting and looting.

I can't see a 5% cut in vat working as VAT is supposed to be on luxury items - so it won't really help the most vulnerable who need energy, food and a roof.
As for increasing the tax allowance again that's not helping the lowest paid much at all.

The only way out I can see is if the gov reduce the price caps and borrows the money to pay for the difference and we all pay it back over the next 10 years or so.

How all this is going to effect window cleaners - well I guess we will lose some customers but hopefully not too many. I guess having a round that is diverse i.e. not just lower paid customers will probably help.

 

[matt1458]

I was having this exact conversation yesterday, and as has already been said I don’t think anyone can predict it. I think some will depend on where you are in the country, and also what type of customer you target. Even in the toughest economic times there are always people moving, new builds springing up, whilst the market may about to get smaller for a while, there will still be money around - especially if you can provide a better / more reliable / more professional service than the next guy.

We’re fortunately still seeing new bookings coming in and we’ve only lost a couple over the last couple of months, but it’s very early days. We also push commercial work quite hard to make sure we have a varied client base and spread our income (having learned the hard way in a previous life and job with only a few large clients, when one goes it’s a huge hole to fill)

Personally I think being able to offer a range of services helps, when we push gutter cleaning we focus on the benefits of keeping them maintained far outweighing the potential cost of them being blocked and causing damage.

It’s likely people will be “making do” for a while now rather than making luxury purchases. Ie they’ll keep the tv for another 6 months rather than spend out on replacing it, so I’m hopeful anything on offer to help maintain a property rather than risk expensive replacements will start to become more attractive to customers.

On the what will happen front, agreed a VAT cut won’t help, VAT on energy is only 5% anyway and I would imagine most small businesses will be reluctant to pass on any VAT reduction as they face their own vast energy price increases which aren’t protected by the energy cap.

Ultimately, aside from the usual politician bluster, I would be incredibly surprised if something significant isn’t done before things get completely out of control.

It would be political suicide and an economic disaster (especially after covid) to allow half the country to be plunged into fuel poverty, irrespective of what side of the political fence you sit on.

 

[DaveSalford]

If you you go on You Tube and search for GB News their news coverage is a lot better than BBC or SKY who seem to make everything sound ten times worse than what it actually is.. We are not seeing any decline in sales or business.... Maybe that will change in the winter can't see it though, the amount of customers having new extensions/kitchens/bathrooms is constant.... Often wonder how they can afford it but they do...

 

[Dave B]

My business is still expanding quicker than ever and picking up a load of gutters, fascias and softwash jobs etc
Never been so busy

 

[Pjj]

My business is still expanding quicker than ever and picking up a load of gutters, fascias and softwash jobs etc
Never been so busy

Our enquiries have dropped off but still have plenty on , and to be honest it’s nice not having to try and fit in a load of other work , will see what things are like in the spring .

 

[Chris34]

My business is still expanding quicker than ever and picking up a load of gutters, fascias and softwash jobs etc
Never been so busy

That's good to hear, unfortunately though the energy price is only just under £40 per week. Come October it's going to be £70 per week. Come January it's going to be £110 per week. Come April it's going to be £150 per week. That's every week of the year.

With the most optimistic view of the world I cannot see how this will not affect everything.

Unfortunately the government are blind to what's going on, right now they should be hell bent on having energy made in mass quantities in the UK, instead they've got their heads in the sand thinking the problem will just go away.

They should be insisting that all new build projects have 8kw of solar panels installed on the house roofs, no panels no planning permission granted, the government can pay for it via tax payer money but the energy not used should be put back into the grid and the tax payers own that energy to get money back off it. They should be paying every man woman and dog to install solar panels on their houses, it's the fastest way to get out of this mess and also will mean we will meet our climate goals. Currently this idea of just paying people lump sums of money, is money down the drain, once that gas or electricity is used then there is nothing to show for it. If they paid people to have solar panels installed then it's a fixed amount of money and once installed it's free energy.

 

[Pjj]

That's good to hear, unfortunately though the energy price is only just under £40 per week. Come October it's going to be £70 per week. Come January it's going to be £110 per week. Come April it's going to be £150 per week. That's every week of the year.

With the most optimistic view of the world I cannot see how this will not affect everything.

Unfortunately the government are blind to what's going on, right now they should be hell bent on having energy made in mass quantities in the UK, instead they've got their heads in the sand thinking the problem will just go away.

They should be insisting that all new build projects have 8kw of solar panels installed on the house roofs, no panels no planning permission granted, the government can pay for it via tax payer money but the energy not used should be put back into the grid and the tax payers own that energy to get money back off it. They should be paying every man woman and dog to install solar panels on their houses, it's the fastest way to get out of this mess and also will mean we will meet our climate goals. Currently this idea of just paying people lump sums of money, is money down the drain, once that gas or electricity is used then there is nothing to show for it. If they paid people to have solar panels installed then it's a fixed amount of money and once installed it's free energy.

Unfortunately not every house is suitable to fit solar panels to , also the government won’t get any revenue if we all produce our own electric it’s not in there intrest to do that . I also very much doubt anyones bills will be £150 per week unless they have a particularly large house like a mansion the average man in the street working at Tesco etc could never pay that let alone all the other bills and mortgage etc . I agree the future is uncertain but don’t think things will get that bad if it dies then the country will go bankrupt.

 

[Chris34]

Unfortunately not every house is suitable to fit solar panels to , also the government won’t get any revenue if we all produce our own electric it’s not in there intrest to do that . I also very much doubt anyones bills will be £150 per week unless they have a particularly large house like a mansion the average man in the street working at Tesco etc could never pay that let alone all the other bills and mortgage etc . I agree the future is uncertain but don’t think things will get that bad if it dies then the country will go bankrupt.

They are going to be £150 per week, there is no getting away from it. The only way you can avoid it is to severe the link between the house and the gas and electricity supply.

To give you an idea, I've had mine switched completely off since May. I have a fridge, cook food once per day, have a small portable tv and have one shower per day. I'm on a smart meter so I can see exactly how much I use and spend. Currently I struggle to keep it below £2.50 per day. The same usage come October is going to be around £4.00 per day. Come January it's going to be around £6.00 per day. Come April it will be around £8.00 per day. That's with ZERO heating, living on my own, switching the oven on once per day, 2 light bulbs.

The prices we pay are already set in stone. The suppliers buy the energy in advance. Today's energy we pay was paid for by suppliers months ago. Januarys energy we will be paying will be being purchased by suppliers now. That's how they know how much we will be paying.

Like I say though, even with zero heating, my bill will be £8 per day in April.

The country is heading for bankruptcy, there is no other way on the current path. It's not rocket science to see what's going to happen.

 

[DaveSalford]

One thing that is a worrying concerning for our customers and this is based on British government data - UK current excess death rate. Its not just the UK its a current global trend.

If you listen to this Doctor John Campbell below he explains that people are dying here in the UK at an alarming rate compared with previous years and its all age groups not just elderly - (This will impact our business)

 

[Pjj]

They are going to be £150 per week, there is no getting away from it. The only way you can avoid it is to severe the link between the house and the gas and electricity supply.

To give you an idea, I've had mine switched completely off since May. I have a fridge, cook food once per day, have a small portable tv and have one shower per day. I'm on a smart meter so I can see exactly how much I use and spend. Currently I struggle to keep it below £2.50 per day. The same usage come October is going to be around £4.00 per day. Come January it's going to be around £6.00 per day. Come April it will be around £8.00 per day. That's with ZERO heating, living on my own, switching the oven on once per day, 2 light bulbs.

The prices we pay are already set in stone. The suppliers buy the energy in advance. Today's energy we pay was paid for by suppliers months ago. Januarys energy we will be paying will be being purchased by suppliers now. That's how they know how much we will be paying.

Like I say though, even with zero heating, my bill will be £8 per day in April.

The country is heading for bankruptcy, there is no other way on the current path. It's not rocket science to see what's going to happen.

Time will tell but don’t think this will happen, it would be the end of the world economy.

 

[mike007]

If gas and electricity prices are not controlled by the Government soon, then I agree with the comments of their being severe civil unrest. Politicians have caused this mess both present and past by not looking after our generating and storage capabilities, instead blindly going for the "green" net zero policy which laughably needs electricity that we cannot supply, so how do you run your ground or air source pump that needs to be on 24/7 to work?. And people have changed....they do not have the same desire or need for proper work and want everything handed to them on plate. They will see their bank statements at the end of the Month and after paying for energy and other bills if their is nothing left, they will say it is not worth working then and stop.....or refuse to pay their energy bill...then what other bills will follow. We could be on the verge of a breakdown in our normal orderly society. And locking down the Country rather than following our already laid out response when Covid appeared was the instigator to this.(30billion pounds of our money for a trace app that did not work properly and no one culpable).

 

[spruce]

I was having this exact conversation yesterday, and as has already been said I don’t think anyone can predict it. I think some will depend on where you are in the country, and also what type of customer you target. Even in the toughest economic times there are always people moving, new builds springing up, whilst the market may about to get smaller for a while, there will still be money around - especially if you can provide a better / more reliable / more professional service than the next guy.

We’re fortunately still seeing new bookings coming in and we’ve only lost a couple over the last couple of months, but it’s very early days. We also push commercial work quite hard to make sure we have a varied client base and spread our income (having learned the hard way in a previous life and job with only a few large clients, when one goes it’s a huge hole to fill)

Personally I think being able to offer a range of services helps, when we push gutter cleaning we focus on the benefits of keeping them maintained far outweighing the potential cost of them being blocked and causing damage.

It’s likely people will be “making do” for a while now rather than making luxury purchases. Ie they’ll keep the tv for another 6 months rather than spend out on replacing it, so I’m hopeful anything on offer to help maintain a property rather than risk expensive replacements will start to become more attractive to customers.

On the what will happen front, agreed a VAT cut won’t help, VAT on energy is only 5% anyway and I would imagine most small businesses will be reluctant to pass on any VAT reduction as they face their own vast energy price increases which aren’t protected by the energy cap.

Ultimately, aside from the usual politician bluster, I would be incredibly surprised if something significant isn’t done before things get completely out of control.

It would be political suicide and an economic disaster (especially after covid) to allow half the country to be plunged into fuel poverty, irrespective of what side of the political fence you sit on.

Just think of the depression of the 1930's. It wasn't a localised depression. While there were a few who benefited financially, the majority didn't. I doubt there were many working window cleaners in those areas worst hit.

It seems that we have been trickle truthed about the scale of the gas and electric price rises. They are going to be higher than we believed. The next price cap adjustment after October isn't in April. It's in January according to Martin Lewis and then another in April.

I haven't lost any customers yet but I have been warned by a few that they might have to reconsider the cost of my services.

 

[High-tower]

Perhaps we will see nationalisation again?
The remaining energy companies end up bankrupt, a change of government and we buy the companies instead of a bail-out.
They could do the ******* water companies at the same time!

 

[Chris34]

Time will tell but don’t think this will happen, it would be the end of the world economy.

No it won't be the end of the world economy, it will be the end of the UK economy. Countries that react to their energy needs and are self sufficient will remain relatively unscathed, they might go through a bit of a recession but they will be able to have affordable energy.

Right now the government should be treating this like a war time situation, they should have addressed the problem back in April. Any country that reacts like ours (like do nothing at all) will be in a very bad position come January.

Trying not to sound alarmist but I can't see how anyone can afford those sorts of rates. Inflation would have to go over 100% to pay for it.

 

[Pjj]

No it won't be the end of the world economy, it will be the end of the UK economy. Countries that react to their energy needs and are self sufficient will remain relatively unscathed, they might go through a bit of a recession but they will be able to have affordable energy.

Right now the government should be treating this like a war time situation, they should have addressed the problem back in April. Any country that reacts like ours (like do nothing at all) will be in a very bad position come January.

Trying not to sound alarmist but I can't see how anyone can afford those sorts of rates. Inflation would have to go over 100% to pay for it.

Half the problem is the energy companies in the uk aren’t owned by us they are French or other countries so how much control our government has over them who knows

 

[Chris34]

I have been thinking about how this energy cost will affect certain groups of people. I think it will effect everything in general in the economy and a recession seems inevitable. However there will be pockets of people who will have a far far better situation than others.

Take for example someone who already has a full solar power installation with a battery, so they are fully off the grid and generate all their own energy. Well if they have got that and are retired on a good pension, well they'll have far far far more money than the average worker. The worst they'll see is price rises in general but they'll seem rich in comparison to most people.

I'm going to target the bigger houses for new customers and any houses that I see that have solar panels on their roofs. I'm also going to push the gutter clearing more as this I think is considered more of a necessity compared to window cleaning, I'm also going to look into diversifying into moss removal from roofs as I think that might be classed as more of a necessity, especially if people are looking at having solar panels put on their roofs.