Lock down until next year?

[scottish cleaning service]

I didn't think anyone would be saying that anymore with the ridiculous things he's been saying ? 

-Especially the idea to inject people with disinfectant, bathe them in UV light and saying that antibiotics no longer work on this virus as it's gotten too good... 

Paraphrasing here but the guy's an idiot. Nothing wrong with that in and of itself but very bad when you're a leader of hundreds of millions of people.

I've read all his books and he is a good business man, that's how he is a billionaire, to be fair.

 

[Skxawng]

I've read all his books and he is a good business man, that's how he is a billionaire, to be fair.

There must be a lot of conflicting information about then.

For instance, I've heard that ironically he got a very poor deal from his co-writer on his book "The Art of the Deal" ?

His co-writer asked for an unheard of 50% (a lot for a writer for hire) and was amazed that he just agreed without argument! He was going in high with the expectation that he would be bartered down.

 

[scottish cleaning service]

Tell your custy's most airplanes' air con have HEPA filters to filter out airborne particles down a 0.3 of a micron (so should catch Mr Corona) - it's the other passengers that they should be worried about... 

https://thepointsguy.co.uk/news/airplane-air-hepa-filter/

They are going to holiday nearby and spend the money on doing up their houses, so they all told me. Maybe that's the reason BA are not going to operate from Gatwick once lock down ends.

 

[scottish cleaning service]

There must be a lot of conflicting information about then.

For instance, I've heard that ironically he got a very poor deal from the publisher on his book "The Art of the Deal" ?

He's got about 10 books out. He has never drank alcohol in his life. His company was technically bankrupt in the 90's as it owed the banks a billion and property hadn't risen enough. His father built the property business and then he took over. Anybody starting a business then I would advise them to read his books. Another good book is Duncan Bannatyne from dragons den, I really enjoyed that.

 

[NoName]

There must be a lot of conflicting information about then.

100%

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/donald-trumps-business-failures-were-very-real

He's got about 10 books out.

And you think he has anything to do with writing 'his' own books ???? https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/07/25/donald-trumps-ghostwriter-tells-all

How many times is that his businesses have gone bankrupt 6 or more??

Hmmm depends on your definition of 'good business man' little bit like saying 'Hilter was a good leader' or 'Trumps good with women' ??????

Then we're all entitled to our own opinions however bizarre  

 

[Davy G]

The trouble is a good businessman does not necessarily make a good political leader. Businessmen are not generally known for integrity. I wonder if if he is a good businessman? My gut feeling is that he's a narcissistic, egotistical, bluffer, who was born into incredible wealth and has been indulged all his life by underlings and advisors who help build his wealth and clean up the messes he leaves in his wake. I trust my instincts.

There must be a lot of conflicting information about then.

For instance, I've heard that ironically he got a very poor deal from the publisher on his book "The Art of the Deal" ?

 

[mike007]

It could be a case where this virus cannot actually be stopped and it has to be allowed to spread to all regions for it to be over.  The countries with less restrictions might see a rapid rise in infections and deaths followed by a steady fall.  Countries like Germany might see a much smaller rise but also a much longer period of infections and deaths resulting in the same number of deaths but over a much longer period of time.

Obviously it will all be analysed in years to come but if you look at our own countries data, London had a huge spike and now it's going down almost as fast as it went up, whereas in other regions it's steadily grown and is not really coming down, which would go along with that theory that until 'x' amount of people have had it then the problem is not going to go away.

Another thing to notice is that Spain, Italy, France and the UK all have almost the exact same number of deaths, all the countries are of similar population size, Spain is smaller but only by a third.  So it doesn't seem to matter what is done, it's almost like the inevitable will happen.

They have also  stopped talking of "herd immunity" for to get that you have to come out of self isolation.

 

[NoName]

 So it doesn't seem to matter what is done, it's almost like the inevitable will happen.

They didn't really know what to do , no one in Europe had seen since much llike it - Asia had a leg up with recent swine/bird/SAR /etc infections - so they hit the emergency stop early on using track n trace developed over the previous waves of similar.

We still don't have a 'treatment' for it - we just know a bit more about how easy it is to transmit and the most vulnerable -

They still don't know if you can recatch it or even if you have any form of immunity - suspect will have waves of mini infections like ripples on pond continuing for a long while yet...pants 

 

[Chris34]

They have also  stopped talking of "herd immunity" for to get that you have to come out of self isolation.

Yeah there will be some embarrassed experts trying to put a spin on it all if they suddenly realise that herd immunity is the reason why the deaths and infections drop.  If they realised that then I don't think any of them would admit it, more likely to put some other spin on it.

Sweden is the country to keep an eye on, if they get rid of it pretty quickly then it will mean herd immunity is the answer.

It would be easy to tell if herd immunity happens though.  All you would need is the countries population and then measure the deaths as a proportion of the population.  If they all measure the same percentage deaths then it would imply that herd immunity has happened.  It would take them years to work it out though as all the countries are recording the deaths differently [not true death figures], even Germany who seems to be doing well might be not reporting the deaths properly, they've already stated this. 

It will all come out in the wash in years to come.

 

[Part Timer]

Yeah there will be some embarrassed experts trying to put a spin on it all if they suddenly realise that herd immunity is the reason why the deaths and infections drop.  If they realised that then I don't think any of them would admit it, more likely to put some other spin on it.

Sweden is the country to keep an eye on, if they get rid of it pretty quickly then it will mean herd immunity is the answer.

It would be easy to tell if herd immunity happens though.  All you would need is the countries population and then measure the deaths as a proportion of the population.  If they all measure the same percentage deaths then it would imply that herd immunity has happened.  It would take them years to work it out though as all the countries are recording the deaths differently [not true death figures], even Germany who seems to be doing well might be not reporting the deaths properly, they've already stated this. 

It will all come out in the wash in years to come.

I don't want to get in an argument about this but the above is quite simplistic. You can't compare death rates in countries that have different population density etc etc. The UK is one of the most densely populated countries in the world and with a virus that is very contagious it was always likely to have a higher contagion / death rate than a country like Sweden even if they both took exactly the same precautions. Our population density is 14 times higher than theirs. I cant prove it but if you take NI, Scotland and Wales out of the UK density numbers. I would wager a decent amount we are by far and away the most densely populated in Europe, ignoring the small tax havens.

Compare the deaths in England to the rest of the UK for example, England 24,959, rest of the UK 1812. England population circa 54 million, rest of the UK circa 13 million. So with the same precautions done at the same time Englands deaths per capita is 3.5 times that of the rest of the UK,  

 

[Tango]

Herd immunity would be when the vulnerable have kicked the bucket and then there is no more death because those left have become immune.

And that's the problem. To gain herd immunity, many would have to die in the process of the immunity being built up.

Herd immunity among humans is not a good principle.

 

[scottish cleaning service]

Home-working could be here to stay. Companies might decide they don’t need lots of big city centre offices.

I read the above in the BBC website regarding Lock Down this year. Then it donned on me that their company would need to pay the employee to have their room and windows cleaned. I can see us getting a lot busier if this lock down continues. I picked up another customer today when doing the two new cleans.

 

[Dave B]

Herd immunity would be when the vulnerable have kicked the bucket and then there is no more death because those left have become immune.

And that's the problem. To gain herd immunity, many would have to die in the process of the immunity being built up.

Herd immunity among humans is not a good principle.

If you keep the vunerable and old at home and let the rest get on with it herd immunity would work well.

Then not enough people would get it to spread to the vunerable.

End of the day it is a virus and is nature and the way the world has always worked is survival of the fittest.

Sounds harsh but that's life so why not get on with it.

I only take precautions working to stop the older customers etc catching it.. if I get it so what.. I'll bounce back and should be then immune for a while.

Too many people making this out to be more than it is.. just this years version of the flu etc.

 

[steve garwood]

Having had today off, I decided to get the bike out. Found my old cycling shorts, and after ten years they still fit me!

I’ll take a photo ?

 

[ksp]

Having had today off, I decided to get the bike out. Found my old cycling shorts, and after ten years they still fit me!

I’ll take a photo ?

View attachment 20302

I took this picture of me before I took the bike out a couple of years ago. Made me laugh when someone first turned it into a meme. 

 

[Chris34]

I don't want to get in an argument about this but the above is quite simplistic. You can't compare death rates in countries that have different population density etc etc. The UK is one of the most densely populated countries in the world and with a virus that is very contagious it was always likely to have a higher contagion / death rate than a country like Sweden even if they both took exactly the same precautions. Our population density is 14 times higher than theirs. I cant prove it but if you take NI, Scotland and Wales out of the UK density numbers. I would wager a decent amount we are by far and away the most densely populated in Europe, ignoring the small tax havens.

Compare the deaths in England to the rest of the UK for example, England 24,959, rest of the UK 1812. England population circa 54 million, rest of the UK circa 13 million. So with the same precautions done at the same time Englands deaths per capita is 3.5 times that of the rest of the UK,  

It's a fair point, ain't going to argue with that.  

I do think herd immunity will probably end up being the answer though, just doesn't seem like a virus like this will suddenly stop due to distancing, with everybody living on top of each other and the shops packed with people I just think the virus would still thrive given how quickly it took hold in the first place.  So for me I think it's more likely that lots of people have now had it and that's the reason we're past the peak.  We need mass antibody testing to find out, there is one just been approved in the EU that is 99 percent accurate.

 

[Part Timer]

I don't disagree with herd immunity in countries with much lower population density then England. Just think it would kill to many people here. You also risk 2 or 3 lock downs which would cause untold damage, mentally and financially. One thing for certain it will be the hard working people with a £25 - £50k salary that will foot the current bill.

 

[Pjj]

I don't disagree with herd immunity in countries with much lower population density then England. Just think it would kill to many people here. You also risk 2 or 3 lock downs which would cause untold damage, mentally and financially. One thing for certain it will be the hard working people with a £25 - £50k salary that will foot the current bill.

It wouldn’t surprise me if we return to lockdown later in the year with a spike in deaths again as the second and possibly a third wave of it hits this country ???

 

[Tango]

If you keep the vunerable and old at home and let the rest get on with it herd immunity would work well.

Then not enough people would get it to spread to the vunerable.

End of the day it is a virus and is nature and the way the world has always worked is survival of the fittest.

Sounds harsh but that's life so why not get on with it.

I only take precautions working to stop the older customers etc catching it.. if I get it so what.. I'll bounce back and should be then immune for a while.

Too many people making this out to be more than it is.. just this years version of the flu etc.

That's fine in theory except that young people with no underlying health problems have been catching it and dying. Normal healthy people - in their 20s and 30s. Children have become infected too.

As for you bouncing back, optimism doesn't hurt but you can't be guaranteed of a bounce-back recovery. My partner is a nurse, is working in Covid wards with Covid patients. She's seen all sorts and i'll tell you, it's not nice. It's that serious that i'm sleeping in the spare room and we avoid being near each other in the day as much as we can.

Just another flu, trust me, it isn't. Like i said my missus has been looking after these patients and it's far worse than you want to accept. For the avoidance of doubt, she is a 1st hand witness to how serious this is and I am telling you with certainty that you are wrong. This is not a government coup or conspiracy (well might be from china, who knows), this is very real.

Don't take any risks mate - please be safe.

 

[Chris34]

That's fine in theory except that young people with no underlying health problems have been catching it and dying. Normal healthy people - in their 20s and 30s. Children have become infected too.

As for you bouncing back, optimism doesn't hurt but you can't be guaranteed of a bounce-back recovery. My partner is a nurse, is working in Covid wards with Covid patients. She's seen all sorts and i'll tell you, it's not nice. It's that serious that i'm sleeping in the spare room and we avoid being near each other in the day as much as we can.

Just another flu, trust me, it isn't. Like i said my missus has been looking after these patients and it's far worse than you want to accept. For the avoidance of doubt, she is a 1st hand witness to how serious this is and I am telling you with certainty that you are wrong. This is not a government coup or conspiracy (well might be from china, who knows), this is very real.

Don't take any risks mate - please be safe.

Although younger people can die, the risks of dying are vastly reduced.  Out of the first 19,112 deaths in the UK, 229 were younger than 45 years old, 2 were below 15 years old.  That highlights the groups most at risk.  

 

[Iron Giant]

It wouldn’t surprise me if we return to lockdown later in the year with a spike in deaths again as the second and possibly a third wave of it hits this country ???

The one thing that sticks in mind is what was said weeks ago, just like turning a tap on open it up to allow a flow of people out the virus will spike and then reduce the flow this will turning of the tap will be the way to go just like in China people are out and about back to work and so on and it looks almost normal but the numbers that are out are massively reduced compared to normal

I think a lot people will still be thinking in another 3 weeks time that we will get a green light for everything to go back to how it was 7 weeks ago, this won't happen for another 12 months otherwise it will be mass deaths once again, the death toll stands at 27,510 and most people are staying at home so definitely a long way to go.